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An urgently needed “risk map” of the many dangers that could derail Asia’s growth and stability
Since Marco Polo, the West has waited for the “Asian Century.” Today, the world believes that Century has arrived. Yet from China’s slumping economy to war clouds over the South China Sea and from environmental devastation to demographic crisis, Asia’s future is increasingly uncertain. Historian and geopolitical expert Michael Auslin argues that far from being a cohesive powerhouse, Asia is a fractured region threatened by stagnation and instability. Here, he provides a comprehensive account of the economic, military, political, and demographic risks that bedevil half of our world, arguing that Asia, working with the United States, has a unique opportunity to avert catastrophe – but only if it acts boldly. Bringing together firsthand observations and decades of research, Auslin’s provocative reassessment of Asia’s future will be a must‑read for industry and investors, as well as politicians and scholars, for years to come.
- Sales Rank: #73829 in Books
- Brand: imusti
- Published on: 2017-01-10
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.25" h x 1.06" w x 6.12" l, .0 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 304 pages
- Yale University Press
Review
"Auslin argues powerfully for a dose of reality when assessing the current situation in Asia and its future problems and prospects."—George P. Shultz, former U.S. Secretary of State and Secretary of the Treasury, and Distinguished Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University (George Shultz)
“No sooner had we got used to thinking of ourselves as living in the “Asian century” than it might be all over… The book is a crash course on the risks in Asia.”—Lucy Hornby, Financial Times (Lucy Hornby Financial Times 2017-02-25)
"What happens in Asia will determine much of what historians in the 22nd century say about our century.� Michael Auslin’s bracing book argues that it may be a sad story.� It is a powerful antidote to the Asiaphoria that dominates conventional wisdom.� Agree or disagree, Auslin’s argument deserves serious reflection."—Lawrence H. Summers, former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury and President Emeritus, Harvard University (Lawrence H. Summers)
“Michael Auslin provides and impressive review of Asian fault lines that could soon break into open conflict despite the region’s interwoven economies. The End of the Asian Century is a unique analysis, and likely prescient, of the world’s most vibrant region.”—Frederick W. Smith, Chairman and CEO, FedEx Corporation (Frederick W. Smith)
“Michael Auslin’s book, The End of the Asian Century: War, Stagnation, and the Risks to the World’s Most Dynamic Region, gives the reader a pragmatic look at the risks inherent in the Asia region. It is an excellent guide for anyone interested in the prospects for Asia, whether you are an investor, policymaker, or executive. It is full of practical examples of what is working well, and what one has to be aware of.”—Henry R. Kravis, Co-Chairman and Co-CEO, KKR (Henry R. Kravis)
“I and many of my colleagues worry more about Chinese weakness than we do Chinese strength; we fret more over Asian failure than we do Asian competitive success. Michael Auslin's thoughtful new book explains why.� It's a must-read for anyone who wants to go beyond today's oversimplified sloganeering.”—General (Ret.) Michael V. Hayden, former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency and National Security Agency (Michael V. Hayden)
"The End of the Asian Century is the most complete and realistic book on the subject I have read in a long time. It demonstrates in bold and specific terms how we must not take Asian stability for granted and how Asia may have unpleasant surprises for us in the years ahead."—Robert D. Kaplan, author of Monsoon and Asia's Cauldron, senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security (Robert D. Kaplan)
"The End of the Asian Century provides a sober corrective to the conventional wisdom of Asia's inevitable rise, pointing to the real dangers of nationalism, conflict, and slowing economic growth that will present huge challenges for everyone in the region."—Francis Fukuyama, Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, and author of The End of History and the Last Man (Francis Fukuyama)
“Too much contemporary analysis is based on the mistaken belief that human progress is effortlessly certain. But as we discovered in Russia, nothing should be taken for granted. There is no destiny, only courage and hard work and vigilance. It is fine to be an optimist, but ignoring potential crises only makes them more likely.�The End of the Asian Century�reminds us that positive change isn’t easy or inevitable. Half the world lives in Asia and the region’s rise or fall will have a huge impact on the other half. Auslin clearly explains the weakest links in the many globalized connections between Asia and the rest of the world, as well as the possible crisis points across the entire region. This focus on the details provides the context needed to understand the big picture.”—Garry Kasparov, Chairman of the Human Rights Foundation and author of�Winter Is Coming: Why Vladimir Putin and the Enemies of the Free World Must Be Stopped
(Garry Kasparov)
"Michael Auslin combines an historian's perspective with the art of diagnosis to map Asia's possible futures. The surprising result is anticipatory, cautionary, and contrarian. Written with verve and a readable style,�Auslin urges us to weigh the wide-ranging implications of these risks for America and the rest of the world."—Robert B. Zoellick, former President of the World Bank, US Trade� Representative, and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State (Zoellick)
"At a time when Asia’s importance is matched only by its complexity and unpredictability, Michael Auslin has provided us a thoughtful, deeply researched, and engagingly written primer on how to think about the future of this vital region."—Robert Kagan, senior fellow, Brookings Institutions and author of The World America Made (Robert Kagan)
"The conventional wisdom has long held that Asia is inexorably rising while America declines. In a bold and provocative book that is sure to spark debate, Michael Auslin challenges that old thinking by showing that Asia risks a calamitous descent into conflict and economic turmoil. Written with grace and insight, The End of the Asian Century is must reading for anyone interested not just in Asia but in geopolitics more broadly."—Max Boot, Jeane J. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies, Council on Foreign Relations and author of The Savage Wars of Peace: Small Wars and the Rise of American Power (Max Boot)
"Moving from geography to economics and politics, Asia expert Michael Auslin draws an innovative risk map in this well researched new book. This thoughtful and skeptical challenge to consensus, with its caution that America must up its game in the region, is a must-read for any policy maker or businessperson thinking seriously about the world today."—Glenn Hubbard, Dean, and Russell L. Carson Professor of Finance and Economics, Columbia Business School (Glenn Hubbard)
"Few other regions matter more for the world's future than Asia. Will the region be a global economic engine and a geopolitical stabilizer or an exporter of economic woes and dangerous conflicts? An urgent question to which Michael Auslin offers lucid—and often counterintuitive— answers. A must read for leaders in business and government as well as academics and journalists."—Mois�s Na�m, Distinguished Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of The End of Power (Mois�s Na�m)
"Many think of a Rising Asia – economically vibrant and politically stable – as the future of the international system.� Michael Auslin’s brilliant new book highlights the demographic, economic, political and diplomatic factors that make this brave new world far less likely. It is essential reading for all who want to understand the future of global order."—Eric Edelman, former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy (Eric Edelman)
“In this important book, Michael Auslin who has studied and admired the accomplishments of Asia’s people for more than twenty-five years warns us not to assume too much and outlines five risk factors that threaten the future of what he prefers to call the “Indo-Pacific Region.” Though not a prophecy of gloom, it is a cautionary tale, about the risks that need to be managed if the progress of the last thirty years is to be sustained and a return to earlier tragic failures is to be avoided.”—Paul Wolfowitz, former president, The World Bank, and Deputy Secretary of Defense.
(Paul Wolfowitz)
“The End of the Asian Century is the essential user’s guide to the gathering risks in the dynamic Indo-Pacific crescent. Not since Robert D. Kaplan’s The Coming Anarchy and Samuel Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations has a study so originally and presciently captured the risks to the emerging international order."—James Kraska, Howard S. Levie Professor of International Law, U.S. Naval War College (James Kraska)
"Do miracles have an expiration date? In The End of the Asian Century, Michael Auslin offers a much-needed corrective to the perma-bulls who wave away concerns about whether the planet's most important economic region can continue to be a dynamic one. Balanced, penetrating analysis."—James Pethokoukis, MSNBC contributor and economic analyst (James Pethokoukis)
"Michael Auslin has written a thought-provoking, contrarian, and insightful book on the world's most dynamic region. It should make all of us think again soberly about Asia's future."—Minxin Pei, Claremont McKenna College, author of China's Trapped Transition (Minxin Pei)
"Michael Auslin has built a reputation as an astute and forward-looking observer. In his new book, Auslin paints a vivid picture of a region waiting to see the full extent of Beijing's ambitions while wondering how the United States will ultimately respond. Those wishing to understand the scale of the challenge posed by China's destabilizing behavior would be well-served by this timely book."—Congressman J. Randy Forbes (R-Va), Chairman of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower & Projection Forces and Co-Chairman of the Congressional China Caucus (J. Randy Forbes)
"For years, many Americans have seen a rising Asia as a region of opportunity. But Asia scholar Michael Auslin has come to see it as a region of risks—military, economic, demographic. In The End of the Asian Century, he provides a 'risk map' of a region of great promise and great problems."—Michael Barone, resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and Washington Examiner senior political analyst (Michael Barone)
“Informative, thoughtful, and wide-ranging . . . well-researched, insightful . . . a wake-up call.”—Publishers Weekly (Publishers Weekly)
“In this impressive book, Michael Auslin pleads for us not to fall for the latest simplistic narratives about the so-called Asian century… �If America’s pivot to Asia is to mature into a meaningful long-term strategy, instead of a vague aspiration, it will require more books like this.”—John Bew, New Statesman (John Bew New Statesman 2017-01-06)
“[Auslin] argues persuasively that most predictions for Asia are unrealistically rosy.”—Tony Abbott, The Wall Street Journal (Tony Abbott The Wall Street Journal)
“Auslin has done us a great service, and his book deserves to be read.”—Peter Mattis, War On The Rocks (Peter Mattis War on the Rocks)
“A �brilliant book . . . easy to read and engaging.”—Michael Rubin, Commentary (Michael Rubin Commentary)
“A valuable new book.”—Aaron MacLean, The Washington Free Beacon (Aaron MacLean The Washington Free Beacon)
“A plausible, meticulously documented analysis of the deep fissures that divide the individual nations and cultures of the Asian Pacific and portend trouble ahead — economically, politically and diplomatically.”—Aram Bakshian Jr., The Washington Times (Aram Bakshian Jr. The Washington Times)
About the Author
Award-winning author Michael Auslin is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research in Washington, DC. A former history professor at Yale, he is a regular contributor to the Wall Street Journal and a global media commentator.
Most helpful customer reviews
12 of 12 people found the following review helpful.
The Complicated Problems of the Indo-Pacific Region
By kahemingway
For several years now, political pundits, economists and foreign policy experts have assured the public that the next century will be the Asian century due to the incredible economic growth in the region along with its seemingly stable, safe environment. This prediction, once considered an inevitability, has become far less rosy in the current decade as problems with economic stagnation, slowdowns, demographics, political unrest, and corruption become more apparent. As someone who has lived in Asia for many years I can confirm that much of what is written here matches what I've been seeing, but I find myself skeptical of the solutions presented inside the book.
The book defines Asia as the Indo-Pacific region and attempts to educate the reader about the problems these countries face via demographics, economic stagnation and slowdowns, corruption, authoritarianism, and the increasing chances of regional armed conflict. The author skips around to different countries in all the chapters, but most of the focus in on Japan, India, and China with less time spent with ASEAN. The chapters on economics shows that while some countries like Japan, South Korea and China have seen tremendous growth, other nations are barely getting themselves off the ground as the economic picture becomes far less stable. The chapter on armed conflict largely focuses on China's rapid military growth and the instability presented by North Korea. The detailed, factual picture presenting the wide-ranging problems Asia faces is one that matches what I have seen and heard myself.
Unfortunately, the major problem I have with this book is the solutions section presented in the final chapter. I was hopeful when the author expressed that Asia is a region torn between authoritarianism and democracy, while making it clear that democracy was not going to be the inevitable winner in the region as many Westerners might think. However, at the end the book only offered the predictable solution of promoting liberalization throughout all of Asia as the antidote for all its problems, along with accepting and supporting the global economy with massive, multi-party trade deals like the recently shelved TPP. It prescribes the US and the Europe as integral parts of the cure since they can help inject liberal values into Asia to create a Pan-Asian region similar to that of the EU.
I find this type of rhetoric similar to the "end of history" line presented by Francis Fukuyama after the Soviet Union fell, which is now considered by many to be wishful thinking. This book, while informative for someone who has little to no understanding of this part of the world, leaves out some insights that I have found in my time living and traveling in the area. It is why I cannot simply agree with the solutions presented and I will try my best to explain some of my own misgivings below.
First of all, there's the idea that the US and the EU should support the democracies of Asia in order to spread liberalization to the more authoritarian countries. This might be a good idea if several clear instances hadn't already been made that neither of these candidates for advocating democracy are willing to stand up for those brave people defying authoritarianism in favor of democracy and liberalism. The Umbrella Revolution in Hong Kong, a protest against unfair election practices, saw no support from either party against Beijing. When Hong Kong book sellers were kidnapped and imprisoned for selling books critical of China's leadership and when fairly elected Independence candidates were denied their seats by Beijing, the EU and US did not protest on their behalf. Taiwan, the only ethnically Chinese democratic country in the region, receives no support from the EU as far as I'm aware and marginal, vague support from the US. When the Hague voted in favor of the Philippines against Beijing in a dispute of sovereign territory, China simply decided to ignore the ruling and continue its previous behavior. The US and EU, predictably, did nothing.
I cannot understate the sense of disillusionment this gives to the people of the region who do believe in democracy. In Taiwan, where I have lived, the young and the old have all come to the same conclusion: the only value that matters is money. China has it. They don't. Democracy doesn't actually matter and, as much as I might have wanted to argue, I couldn't. They're facing reality and realizing that in spite of adopting Western values, no one is going to help them when China comes for them. The same message is being received in Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, make no mistake. Money matters. They don't.
Adding to the disillusionment is the deeply embedded corruption found in democratic governments, which seems on par with those in authoritarian regimes. Democracy should, technically, create more trustworthy politicians and institutions than authoritarian states. Yet, for many people, the only difference seems to be that democratic leaders are a bit easier to get rid of, though that doesn't stop them from returning to power in some other form.
Now, onto the idea that liberalization and democracy are the keys to long term stability in Asia. For this point, one should consider what people in this region are seeing inside the democracies of the US and EU. The reports of frequent terrorist attacks, violent shootings, ethnic tensions, riots, migration crises, and staggering unemployment rates do not present a strong case for democracy against authoritarianism. Many Westerners comment that they enjoy visiting or living in Asia because of how safe they feel inside these countries, authoritarian or otherwise. Internal security matters and tourists from Japan, South Korea and China are now avoiding traveling to countries like France because they fear for their safety. Clearly, democracy and liberalization does not necessarily make a stable, safe society.
Finally, focusing on democracy and liberalization before creating a stable economic environment is basically placing the cart before the horse. Japan, for example, only began to become a more liberal society after its economy was able to provide for the needs of its citizens, not before. If democracy advocates become too pushy in pressing for liberalization, then Asian countries will turn to more authoritarian states who will give them money regardless of their stance on human rights. This is already becoming the case with Thailand and Malaysia. It is also furthered by the international business climate, whose investments largely depend on cutting the best possible deal. This, of course, usually entails the exploitation of the poor and underprivileged. Thus, money will trump liberalization and democracy every time.
There are other points I could make regarding saving face, pride, ethnicity and power, but this review has become quite wordy as it is. To summarize: geopolitics is a blood sport and money trumps any other value in today's world. Spreading liberalization and democracy would require its advocates to forgo wealth for the sake of unshakeable, uncompromising values--which, given what I've seen recently, seems unlikely to happen. More importantly, the very people who the Westerners are supposed to be instilling their values in are fast losing faith in said values as their democratic "allies" largely abandon them. Authoritarianism will be the winner as long as any semblance of value is forsaken for monetary gain.
36 of 40 people found the following review helpful.
The Asia nobody sees
By Alan F. Sewell
I’ve worked and invested in Asian countries. I found this book to be a worthwhile read from several perspectives:
1. It provides details, not platitudes. We are all familiar with the platitudes about Asia being the world’s growth engine. Michael Auslin shows us the fouled spark plugs inside the engine that may freeze it up. He calls it “The Asia nobody sees.”
2. It provides an in-depth analysis of countries from India to Indochina to Japan to Korea to China to Indonesia and the Philippines. We are accustomed to thinking of these countries in common as “Asia-Pacific.” Auslin shows us that differences between neighboring Asian countries often exceed the differences between Canada and Argentina at opposite ends of our hemisphere.
3. Because Asia has such a wide spectrum of extremes, its trendlines exaggerate what we see in the USA. For example, Japan has a much steeper demographic decline than we do. They are automating their society because they do not have enough humans to do the work. We can understand demographic challenges by observing how the Japanese, and soon the Chinese, will deal with theirs. We can learn from their mistakes and successes.
4. It’s a warning against complacency. We see trouble brewing in Asia from many smoldering conflicts, but we imagine that prosperity brought by trade will smooth over the differences. Peace is not inevitable. We could wake up one morning and find North Korean artillery demolishing Seoul, and warning that if we intervene, Los Angeles and Seattle will be vaporized by North Korean nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles. We could find ourselves in a war with China invading Taiwan or another country where maritime boundaries are disputed. Asian nations are not as stable as they appear. Unstable nations are prone to going to war. Perhaps harder work is needed now to avert war.
Are there still opportunities for Asia to grow and prosper, or is “The Asian Century” about to be buried under the rubble of demographic decline, political instability, and perhaps even war? Auslin writes:
=====
To put it starkly, what we are seeing today may be the beginning of the end of the “Asian Century.” For decades, prominent and knowledgeable observers, from bankers and industrialists to scholars and politicians, have predicted the rise of the Asia-Pacific and an era of unparalleled Asian power, prosperity, and peace. At the same time, many writers assure us that the East is replacing the West, in a great shift of global power that will permanently reshape our world. All those predictions now are themselves at risk. I did not travel to Asia looking for trouble. Just the contrary. After nearly a quarter-century studying and dealing with Asia, I initially planned on writing a book on how America’s future would be tied to a resurgent Indo-Pacific, a variant of what then secretary of state Hillary Clinton called “America’s Pacific Century.” To my surprise (and initial resistance), the more I traveled around the region, starting around 2010, the more I became aware of the risks we in the West were ignoring.
=====
Auslin quantifies these social, economic, political, and military risks. Some of the risks surprised me. Japan is far more at risk to economic and demographic decline than I knew. According to Auslin, Japanese society is coming apart at the seams. He surmises that population is declining so precipitately because Japanese men and women no longer enjoy bonding in families. Women prefer to work until they grow old then die alone. Men are left to gratify themselves with pornography. Fewer children who are born to parents who delay marriage to middle age. Of the children who are born, many never go on to higher education, learn a trade, or ever go to work. Much of the younger generation is idled in an economy starved for labor (a question I would ask, is why don’t wages rise sufficiently to attract the idle to work?)
Of course, this breakdown of families in the urban centers of the developed world is a global phenomenon happening in the USA too. What are the social and economic factors that make it so extreme in Japan? Is there anything we can learn that will help the USA avoid this lonely fate?
My other surprise was China. Like most Americans, I respect the character of Chinese people for their high standards of work, intelligence, and morality; an optimistic and forward-working nature, and a socially happy personality. However, China’s government is doing what authoritarian governments usually do, which is to bend our trade relations to work to their advantage. Auslin describes the mix of the Chinese mafia, Chinese military, and Chinese crony capitalists who browbeat our companies into transferring their trade secrets to Chinese companies, or extract it with relentless cyberwarfare if they refuse to voluntarily surrender it.
Auslin says that educated Chinese resent their authoritarian and corrupt government. What would happen if China’s leaders anticipated that the people were about to rise against them? Would they seek to divert their people wrath by declaring war on neighboring countries, including the USA?
I was also educated to some surprising facts about India, which is at the opposite end of the demographic spectrum, and still growing its population by an astounding 180,000,000 per decade! Auslin says that India maintains its population growth by keeping women in the home, getting pregnant instead of going to work. Here again, we can wonder if there are any lessons to learn about keeping our population up by incentivizing women to forego some economic gain of working in order to have more children?
The only complaint I have with the book is the bogus accounting that is used to advocate for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) treaty. Economists in the USA and Europe have realized how unpopular these treaties are, so they have kept busy devising increasingly creative accounting to obscure their bad effects on the USA.
The facts are:
1. In 2015 the USA ran a $367 billion trade deficit with China; $155 billion with the European Union; $68 billion with Japan; $60 billion with Mexico; $28 billion with South Korea; and $23 billion with India. China sold us four times as much as it bought from us.
2. Trade with these countries did not “produce millions of high-paying jobs for American workers who will make products for export” as promised. The reverse happened. Americans who already had high-paying jobs making product that was sold in America lost their jobs when their companies moved production to Asia in order to use its low-wage work force to produce product that is IMPORTED INTO THE USA.
3. USA exports to Asia are declining. As more factories are moved overseas, we make less product to export.
4. Our business with Asia is about moving jobs out of the USA, not exporting product for Asians to buy. We have transferred millions of American jobs that were paying an average of $25 / hour to Asia, where the wage is $1.50 / hour. This is a destruction of over a trillion dollars of income in the USA each year.
5. The USA is getting poorer because we have fewer people working, now that the factories have gone to Asia. The Asian countries are getting poorer because there are fewer Americans drawing paychecks that allow them to buy Asian imports.
6. The world economy is getting sicker. It is no longer sustained by wage-earning labor, but by financial shenanigans, stock market scams, and growing mountains of government debt that can never be repaid. Americans become poorer because their jobs are removed to Asia. The Asian countries make their people poorer by devaluing their currencies so that unemployed Americans can buy them on the cheap. Everybody loses.
As a result, Americans and Europeans have begun to understand that trade with low-wage countries in Asia is detrimental. Free Trade Mavens have therefore developed a method of accounting to try to deceive them into thinking otherwise. The bogus foreign trade accounting, such as you will find in this book, goes something like this:
Suppose you work for a bank and earn $20,000 a year. The bank convinces you to take out a home equity loan of $80,000 a year and spend it on enhancing your life style. After a while you realize that if your debt continues to increase, you will have to declare bankruptcy and allow the bank to repossess your home and all your possessions.
Your banker, who on paper is profiteering from the interest he charges you on your mounting debt, tells you, “Don’t worry. You don’t really owe $80,000 more to the bank every year. We take your $80,000 and pay $50,000 of it out in employee salaries, including your $20,000. Of the remaining $30,000, $20,000 goes to pay our overhead. We only earn $10,000. So you’re really running a trade SURPLUS with us. We’re paying you $20,000 a year, and you’re only owing us $10,000. What a great deal for you!”
Of course, you owe the bank the $80,000 each year, plus all the accumulated interest.
This is how the Free Trade Mavens are trying to deceive us about our trade deficits with China and other countries. They want us to believe that a $367 billion trade deficit with China is really a trade surplus because China theoretically might distribute the money to other people in other countries. In actual practice, China uses our money to buy up businesses and government debt of other countries, including in the USA, thereby using the accumulation of our money to lock us out of foreign markets while encumbering us with debt that we, or our children must pay back with interests to China.
Aside from that, the book is educational in its details about the Indo-Asian countries and the opportunities and issues we will encounter in our economic, political, and military relations with them. The book should be read by those who desire to be informed and proactive in thinking of the future with Asia.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Highly recommended risk analysis in an easy readable book
By Lars H
The last 16 years I spent in the Philippines as a businessman, service buyer and consumer. Doing some business with China.
I give the author 4.6 stars (rounded of to 5 stars) because I truly agree with him in chapter 1-6. The important part of the book, chapter 1-6 analyzes, structures and presents the risks of Indo-Pasific in an easy readable way.
I only disagree with the author in the less important chapter 7, a discussion chapter. In academics and non-fiction the last chapter is not that important. It is mostly the author's opinion. You will save yourself years of reading and watching boring "news" about Asia trying to discern what is "news" and what is propaganda. Read this book if you like to invest some money in equities or bonds in Asia, which I recommend as it has given me a higher growth. The total sum of risks are not much different compared to the som of the risks in EU or USA, but the growth potential is higher in Asia.
I am an EU citizen and I highly recommend this book to a general audience from socialists to capitalists, and in between. :)
Update: Video from a 10 min speech by Dr John Chipman (head of IISS) at the opening of Munich Security Conference March 8, 2017. The speech confirms most of what Michael Austin writes.
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